The 5G Wireless Ecosystem: 2015 - 2025 - Technologies, Applications, Verticals, Strategies & Forecasts

Published: Jan, 2015 | Pages: 66 | Publisher: SNS Research
Industry: Telecommunications | Report Format: Electronic (PDF)

While LTE and LTE-Advanced deployments are still underway, wireless carriers and vendors have already embarked on R&D initiatives to develop so-called “5G” technology, with a vision of commercialization by 2020.

5G is essentially a revolutionary paradigm shift in wireless networking to support the throughput, latency, and scalability requirements of future use cases such as extreme bandwidth augmented reality applications and connectivity management for billions of M2M (Machine to Machine) devices.

Although 5G is yet to be standardized, some of the collectively accepted attributes of the technology include new air interface transmission schemes, new spectrum bands, spectrum aggregation, Massive MIMO, beamforming, D2D (Device to Device) communications and self-backhauling, among others.

Driven by regional, national government, wireless carrier and vendor initiatives, we expect 5G R&D and trial investments will account for nearly $5 Billion by 2020, following a CAGR of nearly 40% over the next 5 years.

The “5G Wireless Ecosystem: 2015 – 2025 – Technologies, Applications, Verticals, Strategies & Forecasts” report presents an in-depth assessment of the emerging 5G ecosystem including key market drivers, challenges, enabling technologies, use cases, vertical market applications, spectrum bands, wireless carrier deployment commitments and vendor strategies. The report also presents forecasts for both 5G investments and subscriptions.

The report comes with an associated Excel datasheet suite covering quantitative data from all numeric forecasts presented in the report.

Key Findings:
The report has the following key findings:
 - Driven by regional, national government, wireless carrier and vendor initiatives, we expect 5G R&D and trial investments will account for nearly $5 Billion by 2020, following a CAGR of nearly 40% over the next 5 years
 - Nearly 70% of these investments will target large scale commercial trial networks in Japan, South Korea and other early pioneering countries
 - Despite a lack of standardization, vendors are aggressively investing in 5G development efforts with a principal focus on new transmission schemes, antenna technologies, and higher frequency bands
 - 5G networks are expected to utilize a variety of spectrum bands, ranging from established cellular bands to millimeter wave frequencies
 - 5G standardization activities are expected to commence between 2015 and 2016

Topics Covered:
The report covers the following topics:
 - 5G requirements, use cases & vertical market applications
 - 5G market drivers and barriers
 - Air interface & antenna technologies: Massive MIMO, waveforms, phased array antennas & beamforming
 - Spectrum technologies: Cognitive radio, spectrum sensing, aggregation & LSA (Licensed Shared Access)
 - D2D communications & self-backhauling networks
 - Complimentary technologies for 5G: NFV (Network Functions Virtualization), SDN (Software Defined Networking), HetNet (Heterogeneous Networking), C-RAN (Cloud RAN), drones & satellites
 - Spectrum options for 5G
 - Standardization & research initiatives
 - Competitive assessment of vendor strategies & commitments to 5G
 - 5G investment and subscription forecasts from 2015 till 2025


Historical Revenue & Forecast Segmentation:
Market forecasts are provided for each of the following regional submarkets::
 - Asia Pacific
 - Eastern Europe
 - Latin & Central America
 - Middle East & Africa
 - North America
 - Western Europe

Key Questions Answered:
The report provides answers to the following key questions:
 - How much will vendors and operators invest in 5G R&D and trial commitments?
 - What will the number of 5G subscriptions in 2025 and at what rate will it grow?
 - What will be the key applications of 5G networks?
 - What trends, challenges and barriers will influence the development and adoption of 5G?
 - Which regions and countries will be the first to adopt 5G?
 - Will 5G networks utilize new spectrum bands?
 - Who are the key 5G vendors and what are their strategies?
 - Will 5G be a C-RAN centric network?
 - What will be the impact of 5G on the M2M and IoT ecosystem?
 - Will drone and satellite based communication platforms play a wider role in 5G networks?

List of Companies
3GPP (Third Generation Partnership Project)
Aalborg University
Aalto-University
Aeroflex
Aircom International
Alcatel-Lucent
Alpental Technologies
Anite
ARIB (Association of Radio Industries and Businesses, Japan)
Ascenta
Ascom International
BBC
BMW
BT
Chalmers University of Technology
China Mobile
Connected Digital Catapult
DoCoMo Euro-Labs
DT (Deutsche Telekom)
EE
EM3 (Enterprise M3)
Ericsson
Etisalat
European Commission
Facebook
Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft
Fujitsu
Fujitsu Laboratories of Europe
Google
GSMA (GSM Association)
Huawei
IBM
Institut Mines-Télécom
Intel
ITRI (Industrial Technology Research Institute)
ITU (International Telecommunication Union)
KTH - Royal Institute of Technology
MegaFon
Ministry of Industry, Development and Reform Commission, China
MOST (Ministry of Science & Technology, China)
MSIP (Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning, Korea)
National and Kapodistrian University of Athens
NEC
New York University
NGMN (Next Generation Mobile Networks) Alliance
Nokia
Nokia Networks
NTT DoCoMo
Ofcom
Orange
Poznan University of Technology
Qualcomm
Rohde & Schwarz
Roke Manor
RWTH Aachen
Samsung
SES S.A.
SingTel
SK Telecom
Telecom Italia
Telefónica
TIA (Telecommunications Industry Association)
Titan Aerospace
Universitaet Bremen
Universitat Politècnica de València
University of Kaiserslautern
University of Oulu
University of Surrey
Vodafone
ZTE

 1	Chapter 1: Introduction	8
1.1	Executive Summary	8
1.2	Topics Covered	10
1.3	Historical Revenue & Forecast Segmentation	11
1.4	Key Questions Answered	12
1.5	Key Findings	13
1.6	Methodology	14
1.7	Target Audience	15
1.8	Companies & Organizations Mentioned	16
 	 	 
2	Chapter 2: The Evolving 5G Ecosystem	19
2.1	What is 5G?	19
2.2	5G Requirements	19
2.2.1	Data Volume	20
2.2.2	Throughput	20
2.2.3	Response Time & Latency	20
2.2.4	Device Density	20
2.2.5	Availability & Coverage	20
2.2.6	Battery Life	21
2.2.7	Energy Saving & Cost Reduction	21
2.3	5G Market Drivers	22
2.3.1	Why the Need for a 5G Standard?	22
2.3.2	Improving Spectrum Utilization	22
2.3.3	Advances in Air Interface Transmission Schemes	22
2.3.4	Gigabit Wireless Connectivity: Supporting Future Services	23
2.3.5	Moving Towards IoT (Internet of Things): Increasing Device Density	23
2.3.6	Towards a Flatter Network Architecture	23
2.4	Challenges & Inhibitors to 5G	24
2.4.1	Skepticism	24
2.4.2	Standardization Challenges: Too Many Stakeholders	24
2.4.3	Spectrum Regulation & Complexities	24
2.4.4	Massive MIMO, Beamforming & Antenna Technology Issues	25
2.4.5	Higher Frequencies Mean New Infrastructure	25
2.4.6	Complex Performance Requirements	26
2.4.7	Energy Efficiency & Technology Scaling	26
2.5	5G Applications & Use Cases	27
2.5.1	Extreme Bandwidth Applications: Video, Internet Gaming & Augmented Reality	27
2.5.2	MTC/M2M, IoT & Ubiquitous Communications	27
2.5.2.1	Short-burst Traffic	28
2.5.3	Vertical Industries & Safety Critical Domains	28
2.5.3.1	Automotive	28
2.5.3.2	Energy & Smart Grids	29
2.5.3.3	Transport & Logistics	29
2.5.3.4	Healthcare	29
2.5.3.5	Smart Cities	29
2.5.3.6	Public Safety	30
2.5.3.7	Fitness & Sports	30
 	 	 
3	Chapter 3: Enabling Technologies for 5G	31
3.1	Key Technologies & Concepts	31
3.1.1	Air Interface: Waveform Options	31
3.1.2	Massive MIMO	32
3.1.3	Phased Array Antennas	33
3.1.4	Beamforming	33
3.1.5	D2D (Device to Device) Communications	34
3.1.6	Self-Backhauling & Mesh Networking	35
3.1.7	Cognitive Radio & Spectrum Sensing	35
3.1.8	LSA (Licensed Shared Access)	36
3.1.9	Spectrum Aggregation	37
3.1.10	Integration of VLC (Visible Light Communication)	37
3.2	Complimentary Technologies	38
3.2.1	NFV & SDN	38
3.2.2	HetNet & C-RAN Architecture	39
3.2.2.1	Will C-RAN be the Default 5G Network Architecture?	39
3.2.3	Drones & Satellites	41
3.2.3.1	Satellite Integration in 5G Networks	41
3.2.3.2	Google and Facebook’s Drone Ambitions	41
3.2.3.3	Interest from Wireless Carriers	41
 	 	 
4	Chapter 4: 5G Investments & Future Forecast	42
4.1	How much is being invested in 5G?	42
4.2	Global 5G Subscriptions: 2020 - 2025	43
4.2.1	Asia Pacific 5G Subscriptions: 2020 – 2025	44
4.2.2	Eastern Europe 5G Subscriptions: 2020 – 2025	44
4.2.3	Latin & Central America 5G Subscriptions: 2020 – 2025	45
4.2.4	Middle East & Africa 5G Subscriptions: 2020 – 2025	45
4.2.5	North America 5G Subscriptions: 2020 – 2025	46
4.2.6	Western Europe 5G Subscriptions: 2020 – 2025	46
5	Chapter 5: Spectrum Implications for 5G	47
5.1	Spectrum Options for 5G	47
5.2	Sub-1 GHz	47
5.3	3-4 GHz	48
5.4	5 GHz	48
5.5	15 GHz	48
5.6	28 GHz	48
5.7	60/70/80 GHz	48
5.8	Higher Bands	49
 	 	 
6	Chapter 6: 5G Standardization & Research Initiatives	50
6.1	ITU-R (ITU Radiocommunications Sector)	50
6.2	3GPP (Third Generation Partnership Project)	51
6.3	GSMA (GSM Association)	51
6.4	NGMN (Next Generation Mobile Networks) Alliance	52
6.5	TIA (Telecommunications Industry Association)	52
6.6	European Commission Initiatives	53
6.6.1	METIS	53
6.6.2	5GPPP	54
6.6.3	5GNOW	54
6.7	National Government Initiatives	55
6.7.1	Korea’s 5G Forum	55
6.7.2	Japan’s ARIB 20B AH (2020 and Beyond AdHoc)	55
6.7.3	China’s IMT-2020	55
6.7.4	China’s 863-5G Project	55
6.8	Academic Initiatives	56
6.8.1	5GIC (5G Innovation Center, University of Surrey)	56
6.8.2	NYU WIRELESS (New York University)	56
 	 	 
7	Chapter 7: Vendor Demonstrations, Commitments & Strategies	57
7.1	Alcatel-Lucent	57
7.1.1	5G Strategy	57
7.1.2	Demonstrations & Trial Commitments	57
7.2	Ericsson	58
7.2.1	5G Strategy	58
7.2.2	Demonstrations & Trial Commitments	58
7.3	Fujitsu	59
7.3.1	5G Strategy	59
7.3.2	Demonstrations & Trial Commitments	59
7.4	Huawei	60
7.4.1	5G Strategy	60
7.4.2	Demonstrations & Trial Commitments	60
7.5	Intel	61
7.5.1	5G Strategy	61
7.5.2	Demonstrations & Trial Commitments	61
7.6	NEC	62
7.6.1	5G Strategy	62
7.6.2	Demonstrations & Trial Commitments	62
7.7	Nokia Networks	63
7.7.1	5G Strategy	63
7.7.2	Demonstrations & Trial Commitments	63
7.8	Qualcomm	64
7.8.1	5G Strategy	64
7.8.2	Demonstrations & Trial Commitments	64
7.9	Samsung	65
7.9.1	5G Strategy	65
7.9.2	Demonstrations & Trial Commitments	65
7.10	ZTE	66
7.10.1	5G Strategy	66
7.10.2	Demonstrations & Trial Commitments	66

List of Figures	 
Figure 1: 5G Requirements	19
Figure 2: Potential Waveform Options for 5G	31
Figure 3: D2D Communication Scenarios	34
Figure 4: LSA Concept	36
Figure 5: C-RAN Architecture	40
Figure 6: Global Investments in 5G R&D & Trials: 2010 – 2020 ($ Million)	42
Figure 7: 5G Subscriptions by Region: 2020 – 2025 (Millions)	43
Figure 8: Asia Pacific 5G Subscriptions: 2020 – 2025 (Millions)	44
Figure 9: Eastern Europe 5G Subscriptions: 2020 – 2025 (Millions)	44
Figure 10: Latin & Central America 5G Subscriptions: 2020 – 2025 (Millions)	45
Figure 11: Middle East & Africa 5G Subscriptions: 2020 – 2025 (Millions)	45
Figure 12: North America 5G Subscriptions: 2020 – 2025 (Millions)	46
Figure 13: Western Europe 5G Subscriptions: 2020 – 2025 (Millions)	46
Figure 14: Spectrum Options for 5G & Vendor Advocates	47
Figure 15: METIS Members	53